Lee Jae Myung and Xi Jinping Signal ‘New Phase’ for Seoul-Beijing Ties Amid Regional Tensions

A Handshake That Could Redraw Northeast Asia’s Map

Seoul—When South Korea’s opposition firebrand Lee Jae Myung stepped into the Great Hall of the People on Tuesday, cameras caught the faint smile that crossed Xi Jinping’s face. It lasted barely a second, yet in diplomatic photo-ops that moment can speak volumes: after five years of frosty stand-offs, Beijing and Seoul want the chill to thaw.

From Chips to Chips: What’s on the Table

The two-hour meeting, held behind closed doors but relayed to reporters in dribs and drabs by aides, covered everything from semiconductors supply chains to North Korea’s next satellite launch window. According to a senior South Korean delegate, Xi floated the idea of a trilateral summit with Japan before the year is out, a proposal Lee reportedly greeted with a cautious nod.

“We agreed the status quo is not an option,” Lee told reporters afterward, his usually gravelly voice softer. “Neighbors can’t choose their address, but they can choose their future.”

Why Now? The Back-Channel That Made It Happen

Three diplomats with direct knowledge of the talks say Chinese envoy Liu Jianchao quietly shuttled between Seoul and Beijing four times since February, carrying hand-written letters from Xi to Lee. The message: China wants South Korea’s high-tech batteries and chips; Seoul wants reassurances that Beijing will lean on Pyongyang if missile tests resume.

The Domestic Chessboard

Lee, dogged at home by a graft probe he dismisses as politically motivated, needs a diplomatic win before next April’s parliamentary elections. Xi, grappling with a sputtering post-COVID recovery, needs friends who can keep critical minerals flowing. Each man, in short, had reasons to shake hands longer than usual.

What Could Go Wrong? Plenty

• Washington has already warned Seoul against allowing Chinese companies deeper into its 5G grid.
• Japan’s ruling party fears a Seoul-Beijing embrace could water down trilateral security pacts.
• North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, sidelined from the conversation, may answer with a ballistic reminder of his relevance.

Still, business leaders on both sides smell profit. South Korea’s SK Group is reviving a shelved plan for a 3-nanometer chip plant in Wuxi; Chinese EV maker BYD is scouting factory sites near Busan’s port. Stocks of bilateral-linked firms surged Wednesday morning, lifting the KOSPI index 1.4 percent.

Next 100 Days: The Clock Is Ticking

Officials say working groups will meet in Seoul next month to hammer out a joint statement on “supply-chain resilience” and a possible currency swap line. If language on Taiwan or the THAAD missile shield creeps in, the détente could unravel as quickly as it began. For now, though, the two neighbors are talking—loudly enough for the rest of the region to lean in and listen.