China’s Live-Fire War Games Rattle Taiwan in Simulated Blockade

Daybreak on the Strait

At 05:09 local time, the first rocket arced out of Fujian’s mist-shrouded coastline, its contrail catching the sunrise like a crack in the sky. Within minutes, Taiwan’s emergency broadcast system lit up smartphones across Taipei: "Air-raid alert—seek shelter." The message was brief, but the implications were unmistakable: Beijing had moved from rehearsing to executing a full-scale blockade simulation.

Inside the Five-Ring Drills

China’s Eastern Theater Command dubbed the exercise "Joint Sword-2024B," a three-day event that encircled Taiwan inside five overlapping maritime zones. Satellite imagery obtained by this newsroom shows more than two-dozen Type-PHL-16 rocket launchers firing salvos toward coordinates 12 nautical miles off Keelung. The rockets, capable of carrying anti-ship or cluster warheads, splashed down inside Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone—territorial waters Taipei considers its own.

What a Blockade Would Look Like

• Day 1: Cyberattacks cripple financial clearing houses, grounding ATM networks.
• Day 2: Maritime quarantine lines halt 40% of global container traffic that normally passes through the Taiwan Strait.
• Day 3: Civilian airliners reroute; fuel reserves drop to 18 days, according to Taipei’s Bureau of Energy.

Voices From the Shoreline

"I grew up under martial law, so sirens still make my stomach flip," said Lin Mei-fang, 67, who sells breakfast rolls in Su’ao fishing port. "But this feels different. They’re not just shouting—they’re measuring the distance."

Across the strait in Xiamen, tourist Luo Zhengkui, 29, filmed the distant flashes on his phone. "It’s patriotic theater, but it’s also a warning to foreign navies," he said, moments before censors deleted his post.

Global Supply-Chain Shockwaves

The drills forced at least 18 commercial vessels to drop anchor or reroute through the Bashi Channel, adding 1.3 sailing days to key transpacific routes. Spot rates for 40-foot containers from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumped 7% overnight, according to Freightos data, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. dipped 2.4% in Taipei trading—erasing $18 billion in market cap.

Washington’s Calculated Silence

The Pentagon dispatched the destroyer USS Ralph Johnson to "monitor" from international waters, but kept the transit outside the 12-mile limit, avoiding a direct challenge. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called the launches "reckless," yet stopped short of announcing fresh sanctions—an omission analysts read as an attempt to preserve last November’s Biden–Xi summit gains.

What Comes Next

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry says the People’s Liberation Army has now staged 11 rounds of large-scale exercises since August 2022, each one tightening the noose. Officials in Taipei privately acknowledge that without faster U.S. arms deliveries—particularly the 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles still in backlog—the island’s ability to break a blockade could erode within five years.

Back on the Su’ao waterfront, Lin Mei-fang brushes flour off her apron and glances at the horizon. "We don’t need more slogans," she says. "We need more time." The rockets have stopped for now, but the clock she hears is ticking louder than any siren.