Trump Says U.S. Will 'Run' Venezuela During 'Safe' Transition—What Happens Next?

Caracas, Dawn of a New Order

The first hint that something seismic was underway came at 4:17 a.m. local time, when Venezuela’s state TV channel cut to a still image of the presidential palace. For twelve minutes, the screen held silent. Then President Donald Trump appeared on split-screen from the White House briefing room.

"We will run Venezuela until a safe, democratic transition is complete," Trump said, eyes fixed on the camera. "This is not occupation; this is stewardship."

The Announcement That Shook the Hemisphere

Within minutes, #USTakeover and #Venezuela trending worldwide. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, long backed by Washington, tweeted a single word: "Inevitable." Meanwhile, pro-government militias—colectivos—patrolled the streets of 23 de Enero, horns blaring, guns raised.

Trump’s plan, outlined in a two-page statement, tasks U.S. Southern Command with securing ports, airports, and oil installations. Treasury will unfreeze $7.3 billion in Venezuelan assets held in U.S. banks and channel them through a yet-to-be-named transitional authority. A 90-day clock starts now.

Inside the War Room

Three administration officials, speaking on background, tell a more complicated story. The blueprint was drafted after last month’s blackout left much of Venezuela without power for 96 hours. CIA assessments warned the grid could collapse again within 60 days, triggering a refugee surge toward the U.S. border. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz reportedly asked for "a Panama-style option"—a reference to the 1989 invasion that ousted Manuel Noriega.

• 5,000 Marines already stationed in nearby Curaçao will secure refineries.
• A floating hospital ship, USNS Comfort, is rerouting from Haiti to the Venezuelan coast.
• Special Forces teams have compiled a list of 24 "high-value targets" inside the Maduro government.

Caracas Reacts: Hope, Fear, and Confusion

At a bakery in the affluent Los Palos Grandes district, manager Rosa Herrera, 41, admits she’s torn. "I want the nightmare to end, but I don’t want foreign boots on our soil," she whispers, letting a toddler tug at her apron. Nearby, 23-year-old student protestor Andrés Pérez volunteers to translate for U.S. troops. "If they bring food and medicine, I’ll guide them myself."

Oil: The Prize and the Problem

Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven crude reserves—roughly 300 billion barrels. Yet production has crashed from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2008 to just 700,000 last month. Analysts say restoring output to even two million bpd could take five years and $60 billion in investment.

U.S. oil majors Chevron and ExxonMobil, both forced to halt operations under sanctions, have quietly lobbied for a "stabilization clause" that would protect future earnings from abrupt policy swings. Democratic lawmakers call it "a hostage clause for Venezuelan sovereignty."

China and Russia Draw Red Lines

Beijing, owed $19 billion in oil-for-loan deals, warned against "unilateral military intervention." Moscow dispatched two Tu-160 strategic bombers to Caracas in a show of force. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov vowed to "defend our strategic partner" without specifying how.

What the Experts Say

"Washington is betting that speed, humanitarian aid, and a clear exit timeline will prevent a protracted insurgency," says Moisés Naím, former Venezuelan minister and now a Carnegie Endowment scholar. "But the history of U.S. interventions says the exit is rarely quick or clean."

The 90-Day Countdown

Day 1 will see the Treasury license PDVSA’s U.S. subsidiary, Citgo, to resume refining Venezuelan crude. Day 30 brings a donors’ conference in Bogotá to raise a $25 billion reconstruction fund. By Day 90, the administration promises, Venezuelans will vote in a presidential election monitored by the OAS and the UN.

Yet few on the ground believe the calendar. "They said Syria’s Assad would fall in months," shrugs taxi driver Luis Montilla, 56. "Ten years later, he’s still there."

Next Chapter Unwritten

As dusk settles over the Ávila mountain range, Caracas remains a city of whispers. Rumors swirl of an underground bunker beneath Miraflores Palace, of Cuban intelligence officers shredding documents, of opposition leaders already choosing cabinet posts. One thing is certain: the hemisphere’s geopolitical chessboard has flipped overnight, and every move from here reverberates from the oilfields of Maracaibo to the ballot boxes of Miami-Dade.