Trump’s Next Move on Venezuela: Will Sanctions Stay or Go?

The Clock Is Ticking

Maracaibo at dawn smells of diesel and coffee. In a tin-roofed café, mechanic Luis Pérez scrolls through his cracked phone, hunting for news that could decide whether his family eats beans or beef this month. Every headline about Washington, he says, feels like a weather report for his wallet.

Inside the Oval Office Fog

Three weeks into President Trump’s second term, senior officials still debate the future of U.S. policy toward Caracas. According to three people familiar with the discussions, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz has circulated a confidential memo outlining four options:

• Extend oil-sector sanctions another year.
• Lift them gradually in exchange for “credible” election observers.
• Tighten financial restrictions on the state-run gold company Minerven.
• Offer a narrow license to Chevron but cap exports at pre-2019 levels.

None of the options, the sources stress, has been presented to the president. “We’re in the listening phase,” says a senior State Department official who requested anonymity. Translation: the administration itself doesn’t yet know what it wants.

A Guessing Game in Caracas

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado greeted supporters last Tuesday in Barquisimeto, promising that “change is already in the airport lounge.” Her optimism, however, collides with the cautious tone coming from Washington. Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez, meanwhile, told state television that Caracas is “prepared for any scenario,” hinting at closer ties with Iran and Russia if sanctions persist.

“We’ve learned to survive on less,” says Delia Rondón, a nurse in Valencia. “But surviving isn’t living.”

What the Markets Say

Oil traders have priced in a 60 % probability that some restrictions will be eased by summer, according to a recent JP Morgan note. Venezuelan bonds due 2034 have rallied from 7 ¢ to 11 ¢ on the dollar since Inauguration Day, though liquidity remains thin. “It’s a knife fight of speculation,” says Caracas-based economist Luis Vicente León.

Humanitarian Fault Lines

The United Nations estimates 7.7 million Venezuelans—roughly a quarter of the population—need humanitarian aid. Catholic charity Caritas reports child malnutrition rates in the Andean state of Táchira have doubled in twelve months. Any shift in sanctions could open, or close, humanitarian corridors that NGOs rely on to import medicine.

The View from Miami

In Doral’s Centro Comercial, where arepas outsell burgers, the mood is jittery. Radio host Ninoska Pérez Castellón tells listeners Trump “must keep the pressure cooker on.” Yet younger Venezuelan-Americans, born in the U.S., increasingly favor engagement over embargo, according to a Florida International University poll released last week.

Decision Day?

White House insiders say the president wants a “big splash” before the mid-term campaign season, suggesting an announcement could come as early as April. Until then, mechanics in Maracaibo, bond traders in New York, and nurses in Valencia remain tethered to a policy still being written on the back of a napkin somewhere along Pennsylvania Avenue.