The Colonel Who Would Be President: Doumbouya’s Landslide Rewrites Guinea’s Story

Conakry—Sunday, dusk

The Atlantic swell slapped against the fishing pirogues as cell-phone screens lit up one after another: “Doumbouya—56 %, first round.” Within minutes, car horns replaced the ocean’s rhythm and red-blue-green flags flickered like sparks in the humid night.

From barracks to ballot box

Only three years ago, Gen. Mamady Doumbouya stepped off a Russian-made helicopter in army fatigues, announcing on state TV that the “page of mismanagement had been turned.” On Saturday, the same man—now in a tailored sky-blue boubou—stood before the electoral commission, hand over heart, as the chairman declared him president-elect with 78 % of votes cast.

“We asked for change; we got it in fatigues first, then on paper,” said Aissatou Bah, 27, selling attieke outside Stade du 28 Septembre. “Now we watch if the soldier keeps his word in a suit.”

Numbers that silence rivals

• Turnout: 76 %—highest since 2010.
• Second-place Cellou Dalein Diallo trailed by 42 points.
• International observers logged only “minor irregularities.”

What the win unlocks—and what it risks

Doumbouya’s pledge is a 36-month transition, with civilian PM and a promised return to barracks. Yet the new constitution—approved by referendum last year—lets him run for two additional five-year terms, sparking whispers of “civilian camouflage.”

Western donors, quick to freeze aid after the 2021 coup, now speak of “recalibrating partnerships,” eyeing Guinea’s 24-billion-ton iron-ore trove. China, already the largest buyer of bauxite, offered immediate congratulations.

Voices on the ground

In the Bambeto traffic circle, supporters danced until tires burned. Critics kept quieter. “We are not celebrating; we are exhaling,” said Dr. Mohamed Sylla, who treated bullet wounds during 2020 protests. “One breath. Then we hold the next, waiting.”

What happens next

The constitutional court must certify results within eight days. Doumbouya will be sworn in on 21 December, pledging to appoint a “government of competence, not compensation.” The franc, jittery ahead of polls, steadied at 8,720 to the dollar—traders betting stability outweighs democratic qualms.

For a nation where coups once arrived faster than rainy seasons, the landslide feels less like an ending than a cliff-hanger. The storyteller’s refrain here is simple: keep watching.