SpaceX & OpenAI Set for 2026 IPO Showdown: What Investors Need to Know

Countdown Begins

SAN FRANCISCO—On the top floor of a converted warehouse overlooking the bay, a senior banker swipes through a deck labeled "Project Starpath." The slides are encrypted, the numbers eye-watering, and the timeline immovable: SpaceX, OpenAI and rival Anthropic are all targeting 2026 for what could be the most hotly contested public debuts in modern market history.

The Quiet Race to the Ticker

For months, venture partners have whispered about a "three-horse launch window" that could overshadow every tech listing since Meta. SpaceX, valued at roughly $180 billion in private trades, is expected to test the waters first, according to three investors who received preliminary briefings. OpenAI, fresh from a $157 billion fundraising round, is rumored to file a prospectus within weeks of Elon Musk’s rocket maker. Anthropic, the safety-obsessed AI lab, is said to be watching from the wings, ready to slip into orbit if market conditions wobble.

"We’ve never seen three companies of this scale, with this level of cultural cachet, line up for the same calendar year," said Priya Malhotra, a tech-listings partner at Goldman Sachs. "Retail investors are already asking for allocation before the S-1s drop."

Why 2026, Why Now?

Behind the scenes, bankers cite a rare convergence:

• Regulatory clarity: SEC rule tweaks on AI-risk disclosures are expected to be finalized by late 2025.
• Cash needs: SpaceX’s Starship and Starlink expansion require multi-billion-dollar capital raises that private markets can’t swallow alone.
• Employee liquidity: All three firms have options expiring in 2027; going public a year earlier avoids a talent exodus.

Valuation Poker

SpaceX insiders are reportedly targeting a $250 billion IPO, betting that recurring Starlink revenue will hit $15 billion by 2026. OpenAI’s bankers won’t confirm numbers, but late-stage investors have already priced the startup at 65× forward sales—higher than Nvidia at its peak. Anthropic, valued at $61 billion in May, is said to be pitching itself as the "responsible AI" discount, hoping to list around 35× sales.

Risk on the Launchpad

Yet red flags litter the tarmac. SpaceX still relies on a single Texas launch site that weather can shut down for weeks. OpenAI faces class-action suits over training data and a thicket of global regulation. Anthropic, meanwhile, has negligible revenue compared with its rivals, making any multiple a leap of faith.

"We’re pricing optionality, not earnings," concedes one portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price. "If AI regulation tightens or Starship blows up again, these valuations compress 40% overnight."

Main Street’s Ticket to Orbit

Retail demand is already rabid. Apex Fintech, which tracks brokerage sign-ups, says SpaceX and OpenAI are the two most searched pre-IPO tickers on its platform—ahead of Stripe and Shein combined. Robinhood is quietly building a feature to let customers indicate interest before banks set price ranges, a move one executive calls "IPO day-trading without the wait."

The Takeaway

Wall Street’s newest rocket trio promises headline-grabbing pops and stomach-churning drops. For investors, 2026 won’t be about picking winners; it will be about surviving re-entry.