Saudi Arabia Urges Yemen’s Rival Factions to Talk as Fighting Flares and Independence Push Gains Steam

Fresh gunfire on the streets of Aden

The old port city of Aden woke to the rattle of heavy machine-guns on Monday morning, a sound that has become the grim soundtrack to Yemen’s eighth year of war. Tensions that had simmered since last summer boiled over when the Southern Transitional Council (STC) raised the flag of the former South Yemen over the gates of the presidential palace, declaring that dialogue with the north was dead and full independence the only option.

Riyadh steps in with an urgent invitation

Within hours, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed al-Jaber, issued a terse statement on Twitter: "All Yemeni components must meet in Riyadh—no pre-conditions, no excuses." The invitation, diplomats say, is the kingdom’s attempt to prevent a fracture that could redraw the Arabian Peninsula’s map and embolden Iran-backed Houthis who control the capital, Sanaa.

"We are at the edge of a cliff," one Western diplomat told me over coffee in Jeddah. "If the south walks away, the war becomes a three-way free-for-all."

Who is invited?

• The internationally recognised government of President Rashad al-Alimi
• The secessionist STC, led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi
• Key tribal and military figures from Marib and Taiz
• No formal seat, yet, for the Houthis—though UN envoy Hans Grundberg is shuttling between Sanaa and Muscat to coax them in later

Why Riyadh is nervous

Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has spent billions trying to extricate his forces from what he once dubbed a "Decisive Storm." The war has bled the Saudi treasury, damaged its global image, and—most importantly—exposed the kingdom’s oil installations to increasingly sophisticated Houthi drones. A southern secession would open a second front along the Red Sea, threatening shipping lanes that carry 8 % of global trade.

STC’s gamble

I reached Aidarous al-Zubaidi by phone as his convoy sped through Aden’s cratered streets. "We have waited long enough," he said. "Either we sit as equals in a new federal talks, or we reclaim our 1990 borders." Southern activists, waving the tricolour of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, insist the south’s oil and ports have financed the north’s wars for decades. Polls conducted by the Sana’a Center show 61 % of southerners now favour independence, up from 38 % in 2019.

Humanitarian clock ticking

While diplomats jockey, 17 million Yemenis remain on the brink of famine. The UN’s humanitarian plan is only 27 % funded this year; hospitals in Taiz have closed entire wings for lack of fuel. In one clinic I visited, Dr. Bushra al-Qadasi held up a vial of insulin: "This expires in six days. After that, we tell diabetics to pray."

What happens next?

Negotiators in Riyadh face a narrow window. The STC has set a July deadline for a referendum; the Houthis have hinted at a new offensive on Marib if talks collapse. Meanwhile, drones launched from Sanaa struck an Aramco depot on Friday, a reminder that the real powerbrokers may not even be in the room.

Back in Aden, as dusk fell and the call to prayer echoed above the hum of generators, a young boy sold khat leaves near the crater of last night’s mortar strike. "We just want the shooting to stop," he shrugged. It is the simplest demand—and the hardest to deliver.