S&P 500 Kicks Off 2026 With a Chip-Charged Win

Wall Street’s First Dance of 2026

New York—The opening bell of 2026 rang like a starting pistol, and the S&P 500 sprinted across the tape with a modest but meaningful gain, closing up 0.4% at 4,796.18. Behind the move: a quiet but broad rally in semiconductor shares that reminded traders how quickly sentiment can flip when the chips are—literally—down and then up again.

The Chip Shot Heard Round the Market

By midday, the PHLX Semiconductor Index had climbed 1.7%, led by a 3.2% surge in NVIDIA and a 2.8% pop in Advanced Micro Devices. Traders pointed to fresh data-center orders and a well-timed upgrade from a boutique research shop that called the sector "the rare pocket of growth still trading at a discount."

“When chips lead, the market listens,” said Lisa Kim, senior equity strategist at Baird. “It’s Pavlovian—semis up, breadth improves, algos buy the index.”

Breadth Was Better Than the Headline

Nine of the eleven S&P sectors finished green. Energy lagged on a 1.1% slide in WTI crude, while utilities sputtered as Treasury yields ticked three basis points higher. Still, advancers outpaced decliners 3-to-2 on the NYSE, and up-volume accounted for 62% of total turnover—hardly euphoric, but enough to keep the bears in hibernation.

What Happens Next?

Futures traders have already priced in a 78% chance the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the January meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The next catalyst: Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where consensus expects 185 k new jobs and average hourly earnings to cool to 3.8% year-over-year.

• Earnings season unofficially begins next week with JPMorgan and UnitedHealth.
• Options desks note that 4,800-strike calls on the SPY are the most crowded position on the board, a magnet for price into expiration.
• Crypto watchers pointed to bitcoin’s 4% overnight rally; historically, risk-on appetite in digital assets has bled into tech names within 48 hours.

The Takeaway

January’s first trading session is a single data point, not a destiny. Yet when semiconductor bellwethers flex this early, history hints that the tape wants to travel higher—provided the macro gods cooperate. For now, bulls hold the compass; bears wait for the next catalyst.