Oil Holds Its Breath as Markets Await Word from Moscow-Kyiv Negotiating Table
Crude benchmarks barely budged Monday, trapped in a narrow $1.50 range as traders kept one eye on their screens and the other on encrypted Telegram channels rumored to carry the first hints of a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire.
Calm Before the Storm
Crude benchmarks barely budged Monday, trapped in a narrow $1.50 range as traders kept one eye on their screens and the other on encrypted Telegram channels rumored to carry the first hints of a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire.
A Market Frozen by Headlines
"Right now, oil is a news-driven commodity, not a supply-driven one," said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital, while sipping black coffee steps from the NYMEX bell. "Every rumor out of Istanbul or Geneva moves the tape more than inventory numbers."
"We’ve priced in a lot of geopolitical premium, but we haven’t priced in peace."— Helima Croft, RBC Capital
What Stability Really Looks Like
Brent settled at $87.92 per barrel, up a modest 14 cents, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $83.41—its eighth straight session inside an $82–$85 corridor. Volume, however, collapsed to a three-month low, a classic sign that traders are waiting for a binary outcome.
- Global spare capacity hovers near 3 million bpd, mostly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- U.S. shale firms remain disciplined, adding just three rigs last week despite $80-plus pricing.
- China’s teapot refiners are buying hand-to-mouth, unsure of Beijing’s next strategic-reserve release.
The Sanctions Chessboard
Washington is reportedly weighing tighter price-cap enforcement on Russian crude, while Moscow threatens counter-sanctions that could tighten diesel exports. EU officials, meanwhile, insist any cease-fire must include guarantees for Ukrainian energy infrastructure—a clause that could keep Russian barrels partially offline even in peacetime.
What Could Break the Stalemate
Energy analysts flag three flashpoints:
- An unexpected flare-up in the Red Sea that reroutes 7 million bpd around the Cape of Good Hope.
- A surprise build in U.S. gasoline stockpiles, signaling demand destruction at $3.60 pump prices.
- A joint statement from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on extending voluntary cuts beyond June.
Until one of those dominoes falls, expect more sideways trading—interrupted only by the occasional headline that jerks crude 2 % in thirty seconds.