Global Stocks Defy Trade Tumult to Rack Up Double-Digit Wins in 2025

The Year Markets Refused to Panic

By late January the headlines warned of tariff chaos and supply-chain whiplash. Investors, however, were already somewhere else—buying. What followed was a twelve-month stretch that turned every sell-off into a trampoline, pushing the MSCI All-Country World Index to a 24 % gain and relegating the doomsday crowd to footnotes.

How the Rally Took Hold

The script flipped on three fronts:

• AI Everywhere: Chipmakers, data-center REITs and even fertilizer firms slapped the phrase “AI-enabled” onto earnings decks, luring fresh capital.
• Rate-Cut Fever: The Fed’s June pivot—three quick quarter-point cuts—sent yield-hungry savers racing back into equities.
• China’s U-Turn: Beijing’s surprise 4-trillion-yuan stimulus in September revived the battered CSI 300, which surged 31 % in local-currency terms.

“Markets climbed a wall of worry that simply wasn’t tall enough,” said Priya Desai, global strategist at Halcyon Capital in London. “Every time sentiment dipped, algorithmic buyers stepped in within minutes.”

Regional Scorecard

Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the majors with a 38 % burst, powered by a weak yen and record inbound tourism. India’s Nifty notched its ninth consecutive yearly rise—up 22 %—while Frankfurt’s DAX added 19 %. Even London, haunted by Brexit ghosts, managed a respectable 14 % advance.

The Trade War That Wasn’t—Yet

Despite bellicose tweets and midnight tariff drafts, Washington and Brussels reached a last-second détente in November, freezing levies on electric-vehicle batteries and commercial aircraft. The cease-fire removed a key overhang just as fund managers were squaring up year-end books.

What Could Go Wrong in 2026

Seasoned managers are guarding against three risks: a rebound in inflation that ties central-bank hands, a property-sector relapse in China, and a sovereign-downgrade shock in the eurozone periphery. Still, the prevailing mood on trading floors is “buy the dip” until the music stops.

Bottom Line

Double-digit gains arrived in 2025 not because the world calmed down, but because investors chose optimism—and central banks let them. The question hanging over New Year’s champagne is whether the same daring will pay off twice.